Episode 14

That's a Tribal Council for the record books.

What was going through your head during the time where votes could be switched? What did you think about the other player's attempts to persuade voters during the deliberation period?

If you had to summarize how you expect this round to go (with the idol in your pocket), what would you say? What would be your best bet for getting the alliance of three that sat in the majority tonight to break up and let you run into the final? With Ibe gone, with whom would you want to be sitting there with, if given the option?

That was another amazing Tribal Council. I was expecting the vote to be tied, but I thought it would be between Ami and Ibrehem. I suspect that the others thought it was more likely that an idol would be played on Ibrehem than on Kim.

It was in the best interests of Kim and Ami for the vote to remain a tie. They both did a good job at persuading their allies to stick with their guns. I tried to point out to Tom and Lisa that the odds were against them if they went to rocks. Lisa is clearly not playing to win and Tom is just Tom. Ibrehem picked the purple rock which was unfortunate, but not entirely bad for my game. I was already planning on cutting him before the finals because he would have been difficult to beat. Now he's on the jury and I didn't have to betray him, so if I get to the end I should have his vote and he may even help convince some other jurors to vote for me too.

I told Kim that I have the idol in order to give her added motivation to win this 24 hour counting challenge. She knows now that she doesn't have to spend valuable time trying to convince one of Tom/Ami/Lisa to flip - she just has to win immunity and we are home free. I think Kim has a good chance of winning because she has no other commitments (she lied about having Tuesday meetings) and the other three probably don't think they need immunity.

I expect this round to go one of three ways, in order of likelihood:
1) Kim will win immunity, I will play my idol, and we will vote out whoever we like.
2) Kim won't win immunity, I will play my idol, the votes for me will be negated, and we will vote out whoever we like.
3) Kim won't win immunity, I will play my idol, and Kim will be voted out.

As I have said before, I want Lisa at the end with me. No way does she beat me in a jury vote. If it's a final 3 as I suspect it will be, the other person would ideally be Kim. Ami has not pissed off many members of the jury and is well liked, and Tom is a confident speaker who could make a good case for why he deserves to win. There's also the fact that Kim is the only person who seems willing to go to the end with me, so I want her at the end in case she wins the final immunity challenge.

If you get time between your minutes, can you give me some sort of idea what you think the Jury perspective is?
(lol, you have all the time in the world :P )

Like, so you see anyone who is a sure vote for anyone? Any Juror who will not vote for x no matter who the opponents? Which jurors do you think will base it on the game? Loyalty? Strategy?

Give me as accurate a summation of each of the final five's games as you expect them to present it.

Geez Brenda, don't you know I'm furiously counting right now?!

Below are my thoughts on the current jury members. It's impossible to predict the votes with five players remaining, but I have indicated where the votes are likely and unlikely to fall. I have limited myself to two names for each category.

Caryn
Will vote based on: likability / deservedness
Likely to vote for: Bobby Jon, Kim
Unlikely to vote for: Lisa, Ami

Chris
Will vote based on: loyalty / gameplay
Likely to vote for: Ami
Unlikely to vote for: Lisa

Jolanda
Will vote based on: loyalty / gameplay
Likely to vote for: Bobby Jon
Unlikely to vote for: Lisa, Ami

Gregg
Will vote based on: loyalty / gameplay / randomness
Likely to vote for: Bobby Jon, Lisa
Unlikely to vote for: Ami

Mia
Will vote based on: loyalty
Likely to vote for: Ami, Lisa
Unlikely to vote for: Bobby Jon, Kim

Chad
Will vote based on: likability / gameplay
Likely to vote for: Tom, Ami
Unlikely to vote for: Lisa

Ibrehem
Will vote based on: loyalty
Likely to vote for: Bobby Jon, Kim
Unlikely to vote for: Tom, Lisa

These completely unbiased predictions reveal that I am on track to win the game. My biggest competition for jury votes is Ami, while Lisa is playing the part of my little mute goat very well. Tom is very much an unknown factor - his popularity with the jury will largely depend on who he is sitting next to.

When it comes to the final five players, here are brief synopses of their games as they might best present them in the finals:

Ami: Loyal to her alliances. Never turned on anyone unless they turned on her first. Didn't need individual immunity or hidden immunity idols to get to the end.

Bobby Jon: Played a subtle game, pulling strings from behind the scenes, until after Jolanda's boot when he started to make bold moves. Orchestrated Mia's blindside. Ousted Chad and (hopefully) Ami with hidden immunity idols he found with no clues. Was not afraid to flip the game on it's head to give himself a better shot of winning.

Kim: Flipped back and forth a number of times until she realised she was just following Tom's orders. Committed to an alliance at the final 6 even though it meant she was put at risk in a tied vote. Didn't need to make 'big moves' to get to the end. Was a quiet assassin.

Lisa: Played an under-the-radar game that worked to get her to the end. Didn't need to rely on immunity. Didn't betray her alliances, even if it meant putting her game at risk by picking a rock.

Tom: A leader pre-merge, he had a target on his back for most of the game. He had no problem flipping between alliances and will claim to have been in control of most of the votes. Was not afraid to go to rocks in order to give himself the chance at a perceived better position in the game.