Episode 14

Tom's so dead, isn't he?

The truth is, he isn't even so much of an FTC threat anymore. He definitely isn't the goat he seems to think he is, but Kim, Ami, and Bobby Jon would all give him a run for his money.

I don't know what Ami's thinking, but in her shoes, I would seriously consider taking Tom to the end (not for the reasons he's given "I've betrayed everyone wahhhh" but since Ami can tell a better rise-from-the-ashes story about surviving the target time and time again and being able to force Tom into a corner with this vote to finally secure a majority) since Kim and Bobby Jon have both proven themselves to be power players so far this week (although I think it's a bit of a stretch to suggest that playing an idol on yourself makes a "power player", but if the jury is impressed). That's not to say that she'd actually stand a better chance against Tom, but I could see it, for sure.

Oh, nvm, I see this one's different.

Kim and Ami are the only two working for it. The others are lazy embarrassments. It's a shame that if Kim wins, Ami probably goes courtesy of Bobby Jon's idol. If Ami wins, Kim probably goes, so long as Ami/Lisa/Tom are smart enough to avoid the idol, otherwise it'll be Tom's time.

I don't think Ami knows about her being targeted over on NuChorotega, so she may not realise that FTC angle is there. Take that away and she avoiding the target at F7 is her biggest "move".

In honesty, I think Kim is the most likely winner, and I am perfectly okay with that. Her games been guarded and hidden, but she's really walked that tightrope between useful player and threat to win exceedingly well. I just hope she has an FTC performance in her to back it up. She only made finals once before, and came second, and that's a long time ago.

I shouldn't just type this on my lunchbreak & I'll probably comment more on this all later, but for Kim to win depends on a lot of things. For a start, landing an all-female F3 is her best bet. That puts her game in the best light in comparison.

Ugh yes, more on this later. She needs to win immunity here for starters. Or does she? Bobbi Jon might soak up the votes. If Ami was immune, the majority three voted BJ, Tom would have to leave. Ami wins final immunity, Bobbi Jon gets taken out.

Shit anything could happen, but that's the most obvious path laid out in my eyes, and that would likely result in a Kim win.

For some reason I imagine Lisa bustling around doing housework, remembering to come back to do another number every 15 to 40 odd minutes

For some reason I imagine Lisa bustling around doing housework, remembering to come back to do another number every 15 to 40 odd minutes

I thought the same thing when I saw the lapses between her posts last night

Now that Kim looks like the immunity winner, and Bobby Jon should play his idol, it looks like an Ami boot tonight (which is better for Bobby Jon's chances, and probably worse for Kim's).

Next round, Bobby Jon is certain to gun for Tom. Tom is probably going to gun for Bobby Jon. If one wins immunity, the other is likely toast. I would LOVE LOVE LOVE it if Kim wins immunity and takes out Bobby Jon (who would probably beat her in the final) leading to this epic 3-3-3 clusterfuckery. What better way to end a season with more merge-rounds featuring power shifts than not and the introduction of the PROD.

Caryn: Kim
Chris: Tom
Jolanda: Tom
Gregg: Lisa
Mia: Lisa
Chad: Tom
Ibreham: Kim
Ami: Lisa
Bobby Jon: Kim

I'm a little annoyed you think I'd give BJ and Kim my votes ONLY because they're original Chorotega. I don't care about that.

Point is, why would Ami/Tom/Lisa get my votes if they were against me like the whole game?

Same thing. Different label.

Now that Kim looks like the immunity winner, and Bobby Jon should play his idol, it looks like an Ami boot tonight (which is better for Bobby Jon's chances, and probably worse for Kim's).

Next round, Bobby Jon is certain to gun for Tom. Tom is probably going to gun for Bobby Jon. If one wins immunity, the other is likely toast. I would LOVE LOVE LOVE it if Kim wins immunity and takes out Bobby Jon (who would probably beat her in the final) leading to this epic 3-3-3 clusterfuckery. What better way to end a season with more merge-rounds featuring power shifts than not and the introduction of the PROD.

Caryn: Kim
Chris: Tom
Jolanda: Tom
Gregg: Lisa
Mia: Lisa
Chad: Tom
Ibreham: Kim
Ami: Lisa
Bobby Jon: Kim

OMG that could actually happen.

What is the back-up here Jeff?

I am presuming a two-way 4-4 tie would have either the third placer become a tenth Juror (have them all vote for a winner from the other two when the Jury are casting theirs), or have the odd voter go again (I don't like this option).

But even with the former, a three way tie could equally result in another three way tie, especially if someone tries to be smart with it.

That was how it was handled in the past, but we now know that a 4-4-1 tie ends up in a revote with the 3rd placer sitting out on the real show, so I suspect that rule may need to be updated for us.

3-3-3 = snap F3 IC, right? (3rd placer again does not make jury)

Can I just say I love the psyche-out banter between Kim & Ami in PM. I just wish some more of them were putting in the effort so they'd be doing the same.

Tom is not even considering the chance of an idol. idek, Did he not see the F7 round?

Working my way back through PMs since the TC, and that's another incredibly trite apology/explanation from Tom, this time to Kim. Even though we know it won't end up a Tom/Lisa/Ami F3 - if it were to - I would say Tom just kissed Kim's vote goodbye. Kim votes for Ami after that.

I don't think she even dignified it with an answer.

That is Gregg, Kim and Bobbi who all will most likely never vote for Tom no matter who he's against.

Also I fucked up by telling Ami that tonight is the last round for idols. I forgot that that's privileged info to holders only. Bugger.

Nowt I can do to fix it though. :/

Also I fucked up by telling Ami that tonight is the last round for idols. I forgot that that's privileged info to holders only. Bugger.

Nowt I can do to fix it though. :/

Well fuck, the further I go back the more repercussions this has. Bobbi convinced Tom that it expired already according to the previous one's rules. Now all Ami has to do is tell Tom as much and there's a srs knock on effect.

Damn. Sorry.

I will go check Kim's first 20 pages as penance.

She is error-free so far. Checked up to #600/pg30.

That was how it was handled in the past, but we now know that a 4-4-1 tie ends up in a revote with the 3rd placer sitting out on the real show, so I suspect that rule may need to be updated for us.

3-3-3 = snap F3 IC, right? (3rd placer again does not make jury)

Wait. How do we know this now?

Personally, I like having third place break a two-way tie. I agree with the snap F3 IC for triple tie, since all of the other possible proposals about voting for a loser, voting for second place, blah blah blah are far too convoluted.

What would the snap IC be, anyways? Guess how the jury voted (most correct, fastest for ties)? This would also mean that voting lists are REQUIRED in order for votes to be counted instead of just a vote-to-win.

And Brenda, I wouldn't work yourself up over it. I think it's generally said at Tribal Council anyways that "tonight is the last opportunity for an idol to be played." Even though they won't hear that until tonight, consider that since it wasn't said yesterday, they should know the idol is still in play.

Wait. How do we know this now?

Jeff got asked about it in a Gordon Holmes interview and he just said it outright.

Also I fucked up by telling Ami that tonight is the last round for idols. I forgot that that's privileged info to holders only. Bugger.

Nowt I can do to fix it though. :/

Well fuck, the further I go back the more repercussions this has. Bobbi convinced Tom that it expired already according to the previous one's rules. Now all Ami has to do is tell Tom as much and there's a srs knock on effect.

Damn. Sorry.

I will go check Kim's first 20 pages as penance.

Don't worry too much about it. Jeff would have announced it was the last night for Idols anyway if it was it, and we obviously aren't going to let it get to F4.