I am out for the night, and I have to agree this *must* be a Kim v Tom tiebreaker. Looking at the challenge though, idk. Social-based on who knows all the players the best. That is really anyone's game.
I will just jot this down FTR, if Kim makes the FTC, I would vote for her, and I expect her to win like so;
BJ: Ibrehem, Caryn,
Kim: Gregg, Tom, Mia, Chad, Jolanda
Lisa: Ami, Chris
I honestly think she's played the best game of any of the final four by far, but the Jury don't see it that way blinded by loyalty and her keeping her game so hidden. She needs to pull it out at FTC.
In the case that Tom makes the FTC, I would be hung between him and Lisa -- and it would *really* come down to FTC. If Lisa can show a good grasp of the game, and that her UTRness was some kind of intentional. Like, any iota of a hint that it was planned that way - and I would vote for her before BJ or Tom.
In this case I'd expect it to be super close to call.
BJ: Ibe, Jolanda, Caryn, (Gregg?)
Tom: Mia, Kim, Chris, Chad, (Ami?)
Lisa: (Gregg?), (Ami?)
The (?) players of Gregg and Ami, I think would like to vote for Lisa most, but *might* land on the others if they felt the Jury was going the wrong way. Gregg to vote BJ to try keep the win from Tom. Ami to vote Tom so that we get a more *correct* IHO winner than BJ, and her vote doesn't go to waste.
The result really rests on the FTC performances here. I'm kinda expecting BJ to tank? Somewhere between trying to Scooby-Doo reveal some things he will catch himself out (cos this Jury talks :D ). He's already told Tom about having that idol before Ibe left (Ibe could take very harshly to that kinda thing). if he reveals he was taking the clues all along it could be another strike against him in some jurors eyes. And he intends to brag about being immune the last four TCs? Eek, he obvs doesn't know that people for the most part count that against you. IMO BJ will have some trouble picking up any new votes, and is right now is playing to lose the ones that are already locked.
Lisa is F3 bound of course. Like I said above, she *really* needs to put in a helluva performance here. She could still legitimately win this if she can explain herself - and more importantly - explain why she played a better game than the others. Was Lisa ever really in danger? Did Lisa ever lie/cheat/backstab? did Lisa ever need immunity? etc etc. But also in all honesty, I don't think she has it in her. She is not the only one fighting her corner though. You just wait for Mami to start slapping that jury upside the head with some good solid logical reasoning for a Lisa win and there could be 4-5 votes there for her. Ami, Mia, Chris, Gregg +a swayed Caryn? It's not impossible.
Tom is the person I feel most confident in putting in a solid FTC performance. his problem is he already lost a lot of the votes with his actions in-game. Yes he has the best view in the house as to what went on round-by-round, but explaining those actions to the likes of Ibe isn't going to make them any easier to swallow. Chad has more influence than he knows in Juryhaus though, ad the indepth discussion of Tom's game has to slowly be building a case for him to win with the undecided (see: Chris' now "100% Tom" pre-vote).
Kim I think can win, and should win in my eyes - she made every move Tom did but was cleaner about it. She kept people at arms length and still stayed with them. Tom brought them close and broke their hearts one-by-one. While Tom has cleaved a trail of destruction Kim's washed her hands and no-one even remembers she was holding them down while Tom plunged in the knife. My worry for Kim is that she's only ever had one FTC, which was a long time ago, and which she lost. Kim has gotten this far by being an UTR goddess, but if she turns in an UTR FTC performance she is shooting herself in the foot.
Where BJ needs to watch his mouth and play a little humble, Kim needs to wow them with a mastermind reveal. She can Penny this (the good way) if she comes out guns blazing. Kimmunity when she needed it but not relying on it. Never getting too close or too distant from anyone. Work that tightrope strategy girl! GL!
