Episode 11

So last round everyone gangs up on Gregg. This round everyone gangs up on Bobby Jon...

Chad/Tom are on board with it (and by proxy, Kim probably is, as well), just like they were fine seeing Gregg leave, since they think they stand a better chance of getting Ibe to join forces with them next round rather than getting Bobby Jon or Gregg to do it.

Not that I'm saying it won't work, because it probably will. But am I wrong in saying that out of Ibe, Gregg, and Bobby Jon, odds are that Ibe will be the one most likely to harbor the most resentment against Chad/Tom (after losing Gregg, Bobby Jon, and Jolanda), meaning that Ibe would be the most likely to take their plan and make it backfire on them by running to Mia/Ami? He shouldn't. Because it's not normal to take a winning lottery ticket and eat it before you redeem it. But he'd be the one most likely to out of the boys, simply out of bitterness.

Sure, Gregg and Bobby Jon would probably be less trustworthy immediately following a successful power shift, but if Chad/Tom/Kim rope in Lisa as their goat after using Ibe's vote at F7, they won't even need him anymore anyways. So, I guess it's all a wash.

In more interesting possibilities: aren't Chad/Tom planning on taking out Mia at F7? Isn't Mia planning to play her idol on Sunday (F7 TC) since she won't be here? Didn't Mia then change her mind, to only threaten and imply that she'll play the idol in her absence and instead save it for later? Meaning she might get blindsided with the idol in her pocket. Or, if Chad/Tom take her implication seriously, they might move the target to Ami, leaving Mia's idol in play after she finds herself on the wrong side of the numbers. Or, maybe they'll try to bring Lisa in on the plan to split votes between Mia and Ami. Suddenly, I'm more excited for four days from now than anything else all week sans the Chris blindside.

One of the funniest questions I've been asking myself is "Who deserves to win this season?"
I can't come up with a good answer. Lisa if she wasn't so unaware. Bobby Jon's always been great (except for Gregg, but I understand)
Um, Kim is okay. Ami is ...Ami. I don't know, nobody else. Maybe me.

I think that Ibe and I have completely opposite lists to answer this question. He's gonna hate me so much after this season is over. I'm so hard on him. <3 Ibe, I'm just trying to help everyone mature and grow! Really!

That's a very realistic, if a little plain, boot order from Ami in last round's confessional. I guess the biggest hope for a deviation from that is if the Tom/Chad partnership decides to nip the taking out of Tom in the bud or not.

I still can't get over the fact how Chad is so effectively (minus the possible picking-Ibe mistake I described above) planning a coup d'etat, and taking over the game with an F4 alliance... yet wants to go to the F3 with Tom!? Really!? You're about to take control of the game, and the world is your oyster... and you CHOOSE to sit in the F3 with the guy everyone voted most likely to win? Ibe and Jo may be bitter betties, but there are 9 votes on that jury, and Tom's still a shoo-in for most of them if he gets there whether he's a backstabber or not.

It does seem a little insane. Buuut I still love it. Having no fear of beating the best is as admirable a strategy as I can hope to see. And it's not even to say Tom was better than him - that's just the perception as of two rounds back.

If he can sit there and explain how Tom hit the merge with a million connections thanks to lucky tribe shuffles - while Chad came in with nothing due to John & Brook's dumbassery. Tom had 30 paths to the end, yet he made horrible moves that would have had him leaving the game if not for Chad 'saving' him, while Chad had zero paths, and still forged one. I think he could certainly pull it off. Plus it would be epic.

It would be epicer yet if it was someone not named Lisa sitting there with them so we'd have a real threeway scrap, but I think that's too much to hope for yet. I still hold out a little hope that Lisa will wow us any round now. Like, she has smarts and decent ideas - she's just lacking the timing. When I started doing my ranking yesterday I only got her and Ibe written. And her one was about how it might already be too late to make a move, and that if she did it now could she do it without becoming a Cochran. Lo and behold she writes up a confessional and it's exploring the exact same theme.

I always get a little kick out of the PMs that people accidentally send themselves, especially when they don't notice and don't re-send it Mia is the worst offender this Season, and her latest little moment of self-reflection made me chuckle;

From: Mia
To: Mia
Re: How convenient.

I'm almost positive that Ibe, BJ, and Kim are voting for me. They probably expect Chad to vote with them too, but Chad is voting for Bobby Jon on his own because of all the sneaky stuff he's pulled.

Let me know where your head is at, but this might require me to announce that I have the idol.

"Let me know whee your head is at" At this point I'm beginning to wonder if she has an F2 deal with herself, and worse, will she stick to it

Speaking of people messaging themselves, what the fuck was this...

From: Brenda Lowe
To: Brenda Lowe
Re: Missed it again

Nosy parker! yeah you :P

So, barring any more power shifts beyond those to be expected, I feel more confident than anytime before saying that it seems our winner will come from Ami/Mia or Chad/Tom depending on which pair wins the battle on Sunday. Odds are leaning pretty healthily in favor of Chad/Tom but a pissy Ibe could throw that in jeopardy.

I was testing for how read replies show up as opposed to unread as opposed to replied, to see how she keeps managing it.

Plus I knew you couldn't resist.

Stop playing games with my neuroticism! [sic]

Aaaaaand now it's Ami. This round is crazy, let's recap.

We have, Ibe & BJ thinking Chad & Kim are doing Mia with them to 4-3-1 her - believing Mia is slaughtering the goat in Lisa, or forcing the tie at worse, still semi-convinced Ibe breaks the tie despite several of them knowing that's not confirmed in any way shape or form.

We have Mia/Ami/Lisa thinking they are gonna at least 4-3-1 Bobby-Jon with Chad, and thinking Tom & Kim are most likely to go along with that because they couldn't all flip right? r-r-right???

Then you have Kim, who really would like one of Ami/Mia to leave pronto, but is completely ceding to Tom and Chad. But has now worked her whispoers in the ear on Chad enough to make him see it makes complete sense that WHY THE HELL WOULD IBE TRUST THEM NEXT ROUND IF THEY DO BJ TONIGHT??

Tom of course, doesn't see this for w/e reason, and is still obsessed with BJ's "turn" against him and wants him out - partly for that, partly because he has better options kept alive that way - still secretly hoping Ami/Mia are legit in their F3 talk. Can he not see though? Chad gave him legit solid info that the girls (well, Mia) are planning his premature demise, while Bobby-Jon's big betrayal was to target Lisa. LISA FFS!? Yes he lied about it afterwards but Tom has totally gotten sucked into an emotional play vortex on this one.

Now that Kim convinced Chad, Chad is actually bringing up an Ami boot hard to Tom. But there's the added layer of complexity that Tom is the only one aware of Mia's idol - so obvs it's a better move to start any chain of blindsides on her first - but will Tom be willing to share that info with Chad/Kim? I srsly doubt it.

omfglol if this tears them apart. And lol even harder when Mia/Ami inevitably bring Lisa to the end at Tom's expense.

Don't even get me started on the fact that Chad/Kim have yet to approach Ibe/BJ about changing the vote off of Lisa and onto one of the girls. idek why that plan is in place. Idol fears? So lets get from a surprise blindside at four to one and unlikely idol play, to letting them know we have the numbers and idol odds of three to one?

These people are legit crazy right now.
[/rant]

No sooner do I type that, than Ami posts about wanting to make a move on Mia sooner rather than later.

Say what you like about Lisa, but she is the safest player in the game right now. Is it possible she has the skills to explain that at FTC she was a guaranteed finalist since merge while everyone else was in constant danger in a convincing way?

inb4 because no.

Then you have Kim, who really would like one of Ami/Mia to leave pronto, but is completely ceding to Tom and Chad. But has now worked her whispoers in the ear on Chad enough to make him see it makes complete sense that WHY THE HELL WOULD IBE TRUST THEM NEXT ROUND IF THEY DO BJ TONIGHT??

Called it.

The fact that the new four even considered a Lisa vote in the first place is much of the reason that Ibe won't let himself win, and Bobby Jon's chances are evaporating.

Ami/Mia actually did discuss being legit loyal to Tom between yesterday and today since he offered them a seemingly genuine F3 to gain their trust (right in time for him to stab stab stab).

I love that a seemingly simple round has devolved into such chaos with the two busy-body girls not so much as even realizing it. But part of that (along with Tom's stubbornness and Chad's loyalty to Tom) leads me to believe it will all be for naught and we'll end up right back where we started by the end of the night.

NEWSFLASH! Tom FINALLY brought Chad/Kim into the loop that Mia has an idol. (I'm not sure if he informed them before this, or if he just lapsed into mentioning it.)

My plan to Chad and Kim:

Or actually, here's a thought: If we really are sure that they're voting for Bobby Jon,why not just vote Mia? If we do that, either one of two things will happen the way that I see it:

a) Mia doesn't play the idol and leaves, which is great since she and Ami are pretty much equal threat wise, only Mia has an idol and is better at challenges based on the recent ones.

or b) Mia idols out Bobby Jon, and we're in a similar position to what we would have been in at Final 7 only now I think Ibe will be a lot more likely to stick with us, and hell, if I play up that I did it to avoid a tie because I don't know what happens in a tie they might actually go to me as the "swing vote" instead of Ibe.

Honestly, if we vote Mia and she plays the idol, we're still in a better spot than if we vote Ami and Mia doesn't play the idol... so I really think we SHOULD keep it to Mia since we pretty much know that they're voting for Bobby Jon and there's no substantial risk for us.

I still kind of want Bobby to go though, and I don't really want to have to face the wrath of Mia... especially since if I'm trying to hide my alliance with Chad and Kim I wouldn't be able to justify my actual reasons for voting the way I might. My actual reasons are that Chad told me Mia and Ami are plotting against me and I totally believe him, but I can't tell her I know that since she'll know where I'm coming from, and I need to play up my perpetual swing vote position so they don't go to Ibe/Bobby John.

And that was the catalyst that should get this snowball REALLY rolling. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a real game going here!

Damn, I gotta sleep. Hoping to log into some sort of shitstorm in a few hours.

Last minute update before sleep. Kim still wants Ami more than Mia, although she seems to be ceding to whichever works. Plus Bobbi-Jon just sent out a raft of 'so Lisa then cool?' PMs. Holylol if it was a 3-3-2 vote on Mia/BJ/Lisa with Ibe & BJ doing their own thing

Plus there's Mia's idol in public now. If Tom really wants to be a villain, he can inform the others how she is most certainly not playing it tonight. Who would believe him at this point though? Chad & Kim *might* get over their fears of him, but Ibe certainly wouldn't.

*still awake*

Dayum Mia, this is for you if you read this post game and tonight was indeed your night. The votes are gonna make it sound like if you hadn't pulled that idol in public stunt, you would have been fine.

But more likely than not, you were getting five votes tonight regardless. Here's hoping you play it, discover the treachery afoot, and somehow manage to nab an extra number over the weekend. Or even another idol :o

Also sorry BJ, but you are so far off of what has been happening around you this round the delusion is kinda hilarious.

Wow I'm being incredibly bitchy and blunt here. Bring back Taj for the bitch role, Helen is too nice and I'm finding myself filling the void :o

I'm nice? Lol I feel like Ibe is gonna read all my comments about him and hate me as much as he's hated Tom this week. You can take on any of them and they'll still like you more than me since you're so friendly to everyone's face in confessional. In Greece, I was convinced I was your favorite until the reunion when I realized you thought I was a shit boring encyclopedia brittanica!

This is my not-so-secret ploy to get them all to align with me come all-stars

And yes, you are totally nice when I compare you to Taj's raging cuntriness, you have an undertone of wanting these guys to survive and learn some. I guess I have that too? But yah, totally a diva this episode. I guess the end result of Mia and idol out of the game was a decent one for most of them. Even if sometimes the left hand didn't know what the right hand was doing.

Long weekend round episode coming up. I might be less of a diva and maybe even get those rankings done.