Episode 12

I want to post this in Chad's confessional, but want to make sure it's not crossing a line, so can someone give me a second pair of eyes on it and approve?

No need to be crass, mister man! Not everyone posts a damn constitution full of planning and recap (which I'm, of course, very grateful for), and others sometimes need to be stuck a few times with a hot metal prod to merely get complete sentences.

Let's take a loot at this though...

And at this point in the game, I can't imagine anyone (like Ami) is thinking HOLY SHIT IF CHAD MAKES THE FINALS HE'S GOING TO WIN. Because they really don't know everything that has been going on and what I am going to whip out of my ass whilst pleading my case to the jury. I'm just poor lonely Chad sucking at competitions and wishing someone would be my friend Chad. I have to tone down the backstabbing a bit though or Ami might take a shot at me.

Just to be clear, aren't you the guy who:
- Found yourself in the minority pre-merge when an ally decided to flip.
- Were essentially dead in the water until saving yourself in a Prisoner's Dilemma, at the expense of the people targeting you.
- Entered the merge being targeted and alone, really instilling an underdog vibe.
- Played a hidden immunity idol.
- Got new life in the game when aligning with the Guatuso's.
- Now, joined forces with a former-leader for a finale pact, and...
- Spearheaded an operation to secure an arguably huge idol blindside and dramatic change-up to put you in the driver's seat.

Those are all factually correct, eh? And I'm not, by any means saying: "HOLY SHIT IF CHAD MAKES THE FINALS HE'S GOING TO WIN" however, with all of that in mind, are you still confident that no one would think you're a threat to win? You're just poor, lonely, sucking at competitions Chad?

I'm not saying all of this to drive you psychotic (or maybe I am), but rather, to segue to this next point:

At this point, it's Tom and Kim [in the F3 with me] and I've explained that thoroughly.

So, you're confident in an F3 of Tom/Kim (with Lisa interchangeable). If you're explaining here that you have good odds sitting against them at the end, and a good case to put before the jury to get you the win, in tandem with the above paragraphs, do you think Tom and Kim realize you're a threat to win?

Do you think that they think they have better odds against someone else, and wouldn't really want to be sitting next to you there? If that were the case, who do you think their optimal FTC would include? How do you think they would get there? And what would you do to prevent it, or just pray?

Just to be absolutely clear (since this is one of my longer posts in your confessional), this is purely a hypothetical and not based on anything I'm read for others. In fact, I've hardly read confessionals in the past two days (hence you sassing me with your "I already answered that" and "Seriously???"), but you just seem so fun to fuck with

Also:

I got one immunity for Jo, avenged my fallen comrades, and then won another immunity for Gregg.

I hear:

This HoH is for you, Cappy!

This is for Chima and Jessie!

I hate attribution of challenge wins.

Hmm, I would tone it down on mapping out an F3 speech for him. Ease it back to something about just how he's had quite the underdog story and turnaround without getting into specifics. Yes they are all known information, but ti's still giving him bigger picture stuff if that makes sense?

If you can halve the size of the post, it's less likely to be leading him along. And he seems to be one of the worse for reading into host posts as is, whether there's something to it or not.

And fix that "Let's take a loot" typo :P

Fuck it, I'm too lazy. He can just read it after the game.

Ahh, Helen's Achilles' heel - compression

Seems like Bobby-Jon an Tom are in a race to see who can destroy the new majority quicker

Ibrehem had me convinced you wanted to take Mia to the end, even if it meant you would lose, because you loved her story arc. I remembered when you told me the same thing about her. I don't know how I can regain your trust from this point on, but I would really like to if there's any way.

icon_glare Really Ibe? He also was telling me that the fact she was voted as an All-Star meant she was a major threat to win

Now, fair warning, get ready for a bit of heat in this post:

This whole time I've been wanting to trust people who trust me, Bobby Jon. And I won't lie, when I realized how much you were lying to me and not trusting me, I seriously considered voting you tonight. I thought you were the one person who I could be honest with in this game, and now I find out that if I even tell you that I like someone else or think they have a great story, you panic and start lying to me in the most transparent and obvious fashion possible? Once you voted Lisa and started to be sneaky, I seriously began to question things between us, and if it hadn't been for the fact that Mia had lied to me about the idol (I had no clue she had it) I probably would have voted you tonight.

Sorry. Obviously I had to vent right there, because I am upset that you had so little trust in me that a comment of me liking someone's story arc made you ostracize me and blatantly broadcast your distrust (because if you thought you were being smooth, please think again: covering for your dumbass Lisa vote was so fucking hard and I had to betray Mia and risk us being voted off now because you were insecure about a guy who has considered you his number one since the beginning and has told you all of us secrets... it pisses me off that you took a dump on our alliance that easily, yes, and I'm scared that you're going to think I don't want to work with you now that I'm saying all of this, but if I didn't want to work with you I wouldn't have risked my ass to save you from your idiotic mistakes tonight. You alienated me, Ami, Mia, and Lisa and for what? IBREHEM? Really? )

So if you want to me to trust you, tell me everything that's happened since you went off the deep end in paranoia. Because I know I spent that time trying to cover for your ass, and being ridiculously conflicted, and I really hope you'll be honest with me again and show me that I made the right choice. Because you already stabbed me in the back once, and I STILL saved you despite it. I knew where the votes were going tonight, and all I had to do was say "Mia, they aren't falling for your bluff, play the idol" and you would have went. But I didn't. So if you don't trust me now, I don't think there's a way that I CAN make you trust me.

I was in a rush when I sent my last message, sorry. I realize now how petty it sounds. What it more fundamentally came down to was the feeling that I was on the bottom of the Tom/Mia/Ami/BJ alliance. I rarely heard anything directly from Mia - it always seemed that I would find out the alliance's plans from you based on discussions you had already had with Mia and Ami. From my point of view, you and Mia were calling the shots. Sure you asked for my opinion, but I didn't believe you would have changed your mind if I had protested. I felt expected to fall in line. Couple this with what I was hearing about you wanting to help Mia get to the end even if it meant we would lose, and I felt like I needed to make a move on my own before it was too late.

Another aspect of it was that I genuinely connected with Ibrehem and Jolanda more than with Mia and Ami. They made me feel like my vote actually mattered. I know they were in a desperate position and it could be written off as strategy on their part, but that doesn't take away from the fact that I felt I would have had a better shot at making the finals with them than with you, Mia, and Ami.

While I can appreciate your disappointment and frustration with me, and your need to rant, I don't appreciate your belittling tone. I don't think of myself as some grand mastermind at this game, so there's no need to keep telling me how "transparent" or "obvious" my lies were. I get that I was out of my depth. I also think you could have gotten your message across without referring to my votes as "dumbass" or "idiotic".

Thank you for being honest about how close you came to voting for me (or telling Mia to play her idol so that I would go). It's upsetting, but I'm sure you felt it would have been deserved. I have not once considered voting for you. I voted for Lisa and for Mia and only lied to you because I thought that telling you would jeopardize any chance of those votes being successful. Clearly I was wrong in that assumption. Please know that I am very grateful for you saving my ass, but don't think I was under any illusion about how dangerous the vote was going to be for me. I thought it was very likely I was going to be voted out and couldn't believe it when Mia didn't play her idol. Even then I thought it was probably going to be a tie. It was a risk I was willing to take.

Cue Chad / Kim facing decision time again, and Ami getting past another round without really having a claim to having any kind of hand in it. If I had to guess, Kim & Chad now boot Bobby Jon, then try take out Ami the round after depending on immunity?

Yeah, I'm still seeing the Chad/Tom/Kim/Lisa F4 with BJ going this round. Ami might make F5 since Ibe is going to be a rampaging lune after he realizes Tom lied to him again, and he's too much of an immunity whore at this point to bring to five if the boys are banking on keeping Lisa and Kim options both open at four.

The only thing jeopardizing this round is if Ami/Lisa take Ibe/BJ's Tom plan and give Tom his comeuppance by getting on board to vote Tom without telling anyone, instead of voting with Tom/Chad for Bobby Jon like they'll probably claim. To be honest, this is probably Ami's best bet, because she should know well enough by now that trusting Chad and Tom is accomplishing nothing but giving them more power.

I would imagine that she'll probably just count her blessings with Chad's peace offering and not do any of the above, but if she does, the entire thing would fall back on Chad for humoring Ibe's plan against Tom in the first place.

I also don't get Ibe's whole "if you go back on alliances, you're a horrible person and there's no way that anyone would vote for you to win ever because you're awful" mentality. Particularly comparing it to Ami's maturity and understanding, and even first-time Mia's respect for a well thought out power shift.

Hmm yes, I'd have to agree. Ami's biggest chance to make a move in this game is right now, but will she even see it outside of being snowed with the "that was just to account for Mia's idol" stories from those three. Even if she takes this opportunity, where does that leave her the following round? Gone against Kim & Chad, who will still have a connection to BJ & Ibe despite voting BJ I'd think. The same BJ & Ibe who will surely turn on her before Lisa, and likely before one of Kim or Chad too.

Even with all the facts and the bird's eye view, it's a hard call to say she's not better off going with the five over the four. God knows what she thinks on her limited info.

Plus I guess Lisa has an opinion in there somewhere too.

Saying all that ^ . It could even be worth making a move just for the sake of it. She has been talking for rounds about how she needs to be able to lay claim to something of her own, and this might be her only opportunity. If she just takes the back-seat again there is precious little further opportunity to stake a claim. No-one cares about what happens at four except the bitter boot, and five and six are approaching real fast.

Like, she could do it now, take her chance on getting to the end with it, then at FTC do a little back-tracking and claim it was the plan all along iykwim?

Saying all that ^ . It could even be worth making a move just for the sake of it. She has been talking for rounds about how she needs to be able to lay claim to something of her own, and this might be her only opportunity.

That's what I was thinking. This is one of the few cases where I would say screw logic, and go play Ted for a day, just to do something for the sake of doing it. Ami's a smart girl, but it would also strike you that she's been around here enough to actually like making moves and playing the game. The target from her credence has essentially kept her from being able to do that all game long. Is it for the best? Probably not. But fuck it: just do it.

Chad has clued her into the fact that Ibe/BJ are voting Tom, but I would agree with you that she doesn't have big enough of the picture in her visibility to vote for Tom with them, unless she's finally fed-up with being sidelined and takes the mindset above (knowing that Tom/Chad couldn't possibly want to go to the end with her, but frankly, neither will anyone else). I couldn't blame her at all for not seeing or taking the opportunity, but I would be simply salivating if she went through with it.

By "story arc" he means her character's story through the season.

That's why I told Tom ... "She was targeted by John to go after Julie's boot, the swap saved her ass, and now you're kissing it."
And I was pretty offended, I was like... Jo didn't have a better 'story arc'? We went from being betrayed and screwed thanks to Gregg, and we managed to almost wipe out every person (except you lol) on NuGuatuso including the Mia/everyone-oppressor John, we get back to rejoin our alliance which he asked us to do and then votes us out?? Then, presumably I was going to be next after Gregg but I win back-to-back immunity's and am now getting some revenge on Mia and Tom? (who is making it worse for himself even threatening BJ now)

That sounds like a hell of a better story arc, honestly. :P

Does there really have to be a fight over who has the better story arc? Like, really?

It's almost like I go through Confessionals/PMs with a fine-toothed comb just to pick on Ibe

But wait! The game is afoot.

Ami is subtley making moves to achieve Plan C - get Chad outta here. Which in fairness would be a much better result for her but infinitely more difficult to pull off. However, given her position now compared to her position afterwards, it would be a massive turnaround. She knows she'd need to get BJ & Ibe on board judging by her PMs to them taking a sudden shift.

She only has the whole weekend to do it, but it is doable if she'd push the right buttons. Gonna be difficult to do without drawing heat for it considering how snowed BJ & Ibe are by him.

She has changed gears to less than subtle. First off making sure Lisa is with her if they decide to push the boat out, then flat out telling BJ that Chad McMiddleman is telling one side that the vote is Tom an the other that the vote is BJ himself. Let's hope he isn't a moron about this.

She needs to be sure this is kept between those three and Ibe though, or she could very quickly find herself on the short end of a swift boot. Then of course from Ibe/BJ's pov, Chad just voted with them, while Ami is a desperate "outsider". Why should they believe her?

Much as I am rooting for Kim, and just plain enjoying Chad. To see the power shift once more would be delicious. I hope they can pull it off.

She has changed gears to less than subtle. First off making sure Lisa is with her if they decide to push the boat out, then flat out telling BJ that Chad McMiddleman is telling one side that the vote is Tom an the other that the vote is BJ himself. Let's hope he isn't a moron about this.

She needs to be sure this is kept between those three and Ibe though, or she could very quickly find herself on the short end of a swift boot. Then of course from Ibe/BJ's pov, Chad just voted with them, while Ami is a desperate "outsider". Why should they believe her?

Much as I am rooting for Kim, and just plain enjoying Chad. To see the power shift once more would be delicious. I hope they can pull it off.

I agree. The power shift would be amazing.

However, I only want to see it happen if Ami can use some serious mind control on the people she's going to be working with. Because that move would leave us with a potential BJ/Ibe/Lisa/Ami F4 where Ami would probably dropped even before Kim as a jury threat. (With Tom gone, Ibe's bitterness, and Ami's realization of Chad's endgame threat status, there's no way he'd survive.)

I'm seriously not sure that I could handle that result.

I think her push is to get them to take out Chad right away. It might settle on Tom, but her push is for Chad.

Helen's DRUNK winner preference list is:

Ami/Chad
Tom
Kim
Bobby Jon
Lisa/Ibe

Remind me to edit/delete this tmrw plz, but just for reference...

I think her push is to get them to take out Chad right away. It might settle on Tom, but her push is for Chad.

kk updating this.

A of all, Bobbi-Jon has found the idol. He said he doesn't think he needs it quite yet, but at the same time in PM, Ami has told him he is Tom's target, and that Chad is telling both sides he is "with them". He has taken this back to Ibe with a "should we team up to take out Chad, or go to Chad with this info" PM. Ugh, you just know where trustable Ibe is gonna go with that

The other thing is that Ami is considering leaving Lisa behind on this vote (Lisa is totes a BJ vote at this point). Ami wants to vote with Ibe & BJ on Tom, and then afterwards pin the Tom vote on Chad. Hrmm, where have we seen this before *koffBJLisaJokoff* Why this is just a little ludicrous is that Lisa can and will do whoever Ami wants. Lisa is starting to (slightly) come out of her strategical shell and is pushing an all-female final three to Ami. All it would take is the slightest nudge, and Ami/Lisa/BJ/Ibe can take out whichever of Tom or Chad they require.

Or of course option B, BJ grasps how much danger he is in right now and uses his idol successfully. And again, it's buh-bye Chad or Tom.

Apologies in advance for how harsh this is, but Ibe is a moron and has all the subtlety of a truck.

Helen's DRUNK winner preference list is:

Ami/Chad
Tom
Kim
Bobby Jon
Lisa/Ibe

Remind me to edit/delete this tmrw plz, but just for reference...

Ah so that's what happened to the Refuge blogs

This not only not a bad list, but is fairly close to my own. Who I'd like to see/think deserve to win;
Chad > Kim > Ami > Tom > BJ > Lisa > Ibrehem

But yesterday I actually started that ranking and I was doing it by likelyhood to win, and it read;
Chad > Kim > Ami > Tom > Ibe > Lisa > BJ

That's already changed after the idol find and Ami making of moves (Ibe's prevote is in for Chad already). Likelyhood to win ranking probably reads more like this right now;
Ami > Kim > Ibrehem > Chad > Tom > Lisa > BJ

Biggest apology & explanation there goes to Bobbi Jon, but just looking at the logistics of getting enough votes and the Juror's pre-votes so far, BJ getting to the end relies on getting there with Ibe. And if he and Ibe are both there, he can't win without a lot of people changing their minds. If he got there with nearly anyone that isn't Ibe his chances skyrocket with Ibe & Caryn's votes nearly certain, plus a good shot at Jolanda's plus one other would do it. Ibe at the end beside him could result in zero votes for BJ (or just one from Caryn).