Chad's current plan involves a pecking order of Gregg-Mia-BJ-Ami-Kim-Ibe with Tom joining him and Lisa in the finals... WHAT?
Now, (at the behest of my work productivity) I'm going to try to focus on each player's character instead of their positioning within the tribe, since I haven't been following closely enough to name all the different factions in play right now. And let's use Chad's order to approach each of them, in turn.
Gregg is playing far too reckless of a game to be in a position to win, so no surprise that he's on the block now or soon.
I like him and Kim as a pair, a lot, and frankly, a lot of people *should* want to pick up Gregg as a number or someone to bring to the end, but he's proved himself to be far too untrustworthy far too early to really make it like that.
Prediction: Could leave tonight, could be a goat in the end, really no telling, but one thing's for sure: the kid ain't winning without changing his tune. And if Gregg has shown one thing so far, he won't change his tune. Not now. Not ever.
Mia. What's there NOT to say about Mia...
I feel like pointing this out: it seems like Penny loves Mia because Penny thinks Mia acts like her. While they both share one key similarity (people find them fucking annoying because of their behavior), it really ends there. Mia was playing far shittier of a social game at the get-go, but have proved to be far more strategically sound as we're approaching the endgame. Mia knows what is in Mia's best interests, and she isn't doing every batshit crazy thing she can come up with in hopes of some spitball sticking to the wall.
Prediction: I see her the best fit for a player who is both (a) most likely to make the F5 finale and (b) having a chance to win it.
Bobby Jon is so hard to get a read on. He seems to me like he's playing Gregg's game but doing a helluva lot better because people don't see through him since he didn't meaninglessly sacrifice people's trust in him early on.
He does tend to do some off-the-wall-things which threaten a strong likelihood of blowback, and while last night's seemingly failed, if he keeps trying, he might end up with a success that can really bolster an FTC argument.
Prediction: Safe for now. Good winner potential, since he seems to be straddling the median of being neither too threatening to take to the end nor too weak to win once there.
Ami definitely pulls at my heartstrings because, after being a force to be reckoned with in the beginning, she has been so resilient since then after being dealt so many shit hands. She responds just how she's supposed to, almost each and every time.
As long as the power keeps shifting, she will keep getting overlooked and manage to continue sliding on by, but the second that an alliance stabilizes to ride it out to the end, her and Tom are both toast because they're perceived as being too good. If they find themselves in the minority when that stable alliance comes to power, they'll get hit. Even if they find themselves in the majority of that stable alliance that ascends, they'll be toast as soon as they're no longer needed as a number. That wouldn't always necessarily the case, but the people that they're up against (namely, Mia, Gregg, Bobby Jon) are far to wary of them.
Prediction: Safe for now. Probably booted soon before the F5 finale. But if the stars align, and the power keeps shifting for long enough, I'd love to see her make the endgame and take the cake.
Kim really should hook up with Gregg and Lisa and make a run for it whenever they have a chance. These three (or even Ibe, for that matter) need each other if any of them plan on beating the power players. She seemingly hasn't done enough in the game yet to warrant a win (and if she's up against anyone but the three I just listed, she certainly won't get one), but if she grows a backbone and plays her cards right, she's still got a horse in the race.
I see the Erinn comparison, but in Refuge, Erinn's social game was balls. She'd potentially have beaten Lisi in the end (whose social game was worse, but idol goddess <3) or Alina (whose own actions made the jury hate her), but wouldn't have been that great of a winner. Here: Lisa is Lisi, and Gregg is Alina. But Kim has enough game left to prove herself such that a Kim-victory wouldn't necessarily taste sour.
Prediction: Safe for now. Probably safe for later too. I could see her sitting in the finale or FTC, but her chances of winning once there are more in flux right now than anyone else, depending on who she'd sit there with and what she does from this point forward.
Ibe seemed fine with Jolanda around, but frankly, he's so out of his league that he might think he's on a completely different show. Someone was giving him credit for putting on a superficial face so that you don't think he really knows what's going on even though he does... which is possible. But I don't really buy it.
If we're making comparisons, I would mark him with the jury's perception of Brian in Greece (but not that ACTUAL Brian in Greece). If he makes FTC, I don't think the jury will care what he says about anything. (However, let it be clarified that ACTUAL Brian and his ACTUAL behind-the-scenes plans --- many which never came to fruition, including those against me, and his brilliant positioning pre-merge --- are LEAGUES above what Ibe is capable of.)
Prediction: This kid was destined to fall on the wrong side of the numbers. Even when Chorotega took control last round, fate had a way of course-correcting, and if need be, it'll happen again. Tiny likelihood of being a goat, but is seemingly too likable to fit the bill.
Tom screwed the pooch with this one. I do see a lot of myself in Tom. (Fuck.) And while from his POV he was right that a Chorotega F6 wasn't the best outcome for him (since Mia's pretty eyes have him keeping her for FTC), hindsight's fucking 20/20. There's a huge bounty on his head, and nothing short of a miracle would keep him in play through to the FTC since we're still only sitting at nine. Breathing a sigh of relief for the banal simplicity of Ibe/Jo/Gregg/Kim being dandy for a pagonging starting at F11, and then planting seeds for a switch-up at F8 or F7 (with a smaller alliance where he wouldn't be expendable) might've been his best option. Sure, there's a damn good chance he'll make F6 with the path he's taking now, but he will go down eventually.
There's no doubt that Tom will think and overthink and rethink every decision that he makes from this point forward as though each is the most important decision in the game, but the fact remains that his most important decisions in the game are already behind him... those that made him
that much of a threat to win. I'm damn guilty of it, too. He may have a Westman avatar, but he better pray that he can immunity whore like a Glover.
Prediction: I'm going to group him with Ami with some slight modifications... Safe for now [but should start sweating sooner than Ami]. Probably booted soon before the F5 finale [probably meaning almost definitely]. But if the stars align, and the power keeps shifting for long enough, I'd love to see him make the endgame and take the cake [there're a helluva lot more stars that would need to line-up for him to make FTC than for Ami to].
Lisa is still there. And she only gets one paragraph.
Prediction: Does it matter?
Chad is a STAR. The mere fact that he's still alive is amazing. To close out the comparison train, let's call him Ted. No matter how stressful this shit gets, I can see him always being entertaining and never getting neurotic.
Chad is the biggest question mark in my mind because... I have no idea what will come of him. It would seem (?) he can breathe easy now. But... can he ever? Really? From him being against the odds for days now, I know so much about him, but now that the numbers may be (just for a second) back in his favor, it seems like I know so little because he now has an entirely new game to play where he's a wildcard.
Prediction: He could be short for this world, or he could be long for it, no telling. In truth, if he makes the finals, he should be a shoo-in for the win. He has the best come-from-the-ashes story to tell bar-none. (Mia would give him a run for his money in terms of redemptive arcs, but I don't think she's actually aware of hers.) With that said though, I don't think people will pick up on him being an FTC threat just yet. Him making it that far is a totally different question because he seems wise enough to, but are the others wise enough to not let him. Hopefully... hopefully... the others will realize it all but too late.
I mean it's seriously on the verge of mental illness. 
will ensue.